Vehicles that drive themselves on motorways and in traffic jams could be on the road in large numbers by 2017 and the global autonomous car market could be worth $42 billion by 2025, according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group.
Xavier Mosquet, North America leader of Boston Consulting commented, “Many people don’t realise how far along some of these technologies are.” He added, “Even more surprising, consumer interest and the production costs will make autonomous vehicles highly attractive to both carmakers and their customers in a relatively short time frame.”
Ford Motor CEO Mark Fields predicated a mainstream car maker would introduce a self driving car in the next five years when speaking at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Meanwhile GM said in September it will introduce hands-free motorway driving technology on a Cadillac within two years.
Mercedes highlighted the technology at the Consumer Electronics Show with its F 015 concept car, which drove itself to the event. It has four seats that can face each other, rather than the road. Six screens let passengers monitor information about the vehicle and the outside world, using technology that responds to eye movements and gestures. The company plans to put this type of technology to work with a hands free driving system on some models available as soon as next year.
Experts say the price of this technology will fall rapidly as it is developed and by 2035 about 18 million vehicles may be partially autonomous and 12 million could be fully autonomous.
Also key to the development is consumer response with over 50% of US drivers saying were likely to buy a partially self-driving car within about five years, while 44% said they probably would buy a fully autonomous car within ten years.
“The next decades, after 125 years of driving yourself, will be ones that will change the auto industry to an extent it hasn’t been changed in 100 years. It will be radical,” said Thomas Dauner, Boston Consulting’s head of the global auto practice and co-author of the study.
